statistics: ttc or ntnp?

[FBbaby]

My OH and I fall in the grey area of whether we might be able to fall pg naturally or not. Him: first SA with lowish count and low morph, second one, ok count and motility, morp 6%. There seem to be quite some debate around that morphology percentage... Me: 39 going on 40, fsh result and AFC not great, but not disastrous, I ov every cycle. History, started ttc in April 09, fell pg in May 09, m/c June 09, been ttc since then. I am now at a stage of trying to assess whether our chances are good enough to try ttc considering we problably only have about 2 more years realistically or whether we should seriously consider assisted conception.

My question is: do you guys know when we read about all those statistics, WHO, FS etc... whether it indicates chances of pg for couple ntnp, those ttc, or the two combined? Because I can't help to think there must be quite a difference in terms of chances when ntnp rather than ttc, that is unless ntnp means that the average couple enjoys each other every other day 3 weeks per month (maybe it is the case!!!) So when we read that 80% of couples will fall pg within 12 months (or whatever it is), does it assume every couple not taking precautions or only those actively ttc (ie. trying to detect ovulation and bding at the right time)?

 

[Jem88]

If his 2nd sa was ok count and motility and morp 6% then i don't see why you can't get pregnant again, you say you've been preg but even tho it ended in mc, thats a good sign that you CAN get pregnant, even tho me & my OH are both in our early 20s his morph was only 3% at his last sa, and it took us 18 months to get our 2nd BFP but only 6 months to get our 3rd, but we just BD every other day we wer'nt charting etc.

 

[Tomo]

Hi FBbaby,

I don't know the answer, but I had thought it was more TTC couples. In relation to the statistic that the majority of 'couples' will get pg within 12months of trying- in this instance does the 'couples' exclude couples who have any impairment of fertility (known or otherwise) ie: is it only healthy couples with no known MF, PCOS, ovulation issues etc will conceive with 1 year of trying?

We're coming up to a year of trying and have had a couple of iffy SA results, 'all a bit low'. I've only had CD3 bloods, which we're fine and have regular periods, with clear indication of ovulation on my charts.

As for whether to move on to assisted conception, it's a tricky decision to know when and if to try it. Has your FS recommended a suggested course of action?

 

[walrusandposs]

I always assumed the 12 months trying was healthy couples (with no subfertility) could be having unprotected sex for 12 months regularly (don't know how regularly!) if they don't conceive within the year there might be a problem with fertility so get checked out etc. I don't think it assumes they're tracking their fertile days etc, just having regular sex for a year. Isn't it something like, in your 20s (I'm not sure of the ranges) you're 33% likely to get pregnant each month even if you have sex on your most fertile days.. I don't know the numbers but I know this percentage is less when you're above 35, so then I guess the 12 months takes into account not timing the BDing for healthy couples.

Ok, so where does that leave my point? Haha, I don't know, I think I was just explaining what I thought that whole 12 months trying before following it up meant.

I actually don't know what ntnp means though?

Did that help at all?!?! sorry hon, I was trying!! xxxxx

 

[FBbaby]

thanks guys for your responses. I have read since (not even looking typical!!), that it is 12 months of regular intercourse. Don't think they define 'regular' though now thinking about it, I have a vague recollection of the fs mentioning at our first meeting something around 2 to 3 days, that might be it

tomo, our fs has been strongly encouraging us to do icsi (first SA), now IVF, but that's the easy answer when you don't have to pay for it! I read the new WHO recommendations on 'normal' SA range, and it states that if a man with 4% morphology has normal count and normal motility, pregnancy should take place within 12 months. However, this is a following a new research. My FS seems to highly disagree with this!

Jem, congratulations again, your situation is very encouraging. At the moment, OH and I are waving towards ttc naturally and hoping that nature comes knocking on our door too.

Thanks Walrusandposs (love the name!). ntnp is 'not trying not preventing' Hope you too get a nice surprise.

 

[walrusandposs]

Haha, thanks FB it was supposed to be walrusandpossum, strangely I didn't use an '&' so I didn't have enough letters to finish it! haha, silly me.

Anyway, the FS said the same to us- go straight to IVF- depending on how patient you are, IUI is pointless etc etc. My partner has ok motility and volume too so we're giving the natural a good crack. I like the idea of trying still at the moment! Its like a game of chance! I just hope the dice actually has a chance at rolling in our favour, cos otherwise, well otherwise it ruins the fun.

We'll see. Sounds like we're in the same boat?

Goodluck honey... You've probably said it already, so i'm sorry but is your OH on a TTC cocktail of any sort?

xxxxxxxxx

 

[FBbaby]

He's been on fertilaid for men, although not taking as regularly as the 3 a day recommended! He has also cut down on alcohol quite a bit. We, of course, put down the better count on second SA down to this, but who knows!

The reason for the bad morphology might be his sports. He does a lot of mountain biking (2 or 3 times a week) and also plays squash a lot. I wish I could tell him to stop completely, but I know that would make him totally miserable and the stress that would come from giving it up could be another reason why his morphology is low anyway! (and I do like his gorgeous bod!) It would be unfair to assume this is the problem anyway, after all, the friends he goes cycling/plays squash with have children. He is already making a big effort to cut down on the alcohol, so I'm happy.

I do hang on to the fact that I did fall pg once, so I know it is definitely possible.

 

[Sparky67]

Hi FBbaby - do you chart? If you are charting and you know you are BDing at the right times each month, then you should only really be looking at waiting a few cycles before considering help.

I think the 12 months to conceive thing is probably people just trying at random, and at some point in 12 months they are likely to be doing at the right time. If you KNOW you are doing it at the right time every month and nothing happens, then you might need a bit of help.

I was told it would be unlikely that we would conceive, and after 2 years of trying and another 5 of NTNP I got a BFP out of the blue. Unfortunately I MCd, but now we know it could happen, we are actively trying again.

 

[MrsJA]

Hi FB,

If you've been pregnant before, then that's a great sign. If you keep trying for long enough you will probably get pg again...the million dollar question is how long do you have?

My DH has 2% morphology and a low'ish count, and our FS said we have less than 1% chance of conceiving each cycle based on that. Your morphology is slightly better (not sure what your count is like?) so your chances of success would be too. But you'd still be well below the 15% -20% chance that most couples in this age group would have of conceiving each month.

I agree that you can improve SA results to a certain extent, but just speaking from experience, my DH quit smoking, reduced drinking, took vitamins, zinc etc and it hasn't shifted much.

Sorry that I sound really negative here!!

I know how hard the IVF decision can be, especially financially. But I think it's definitely something you guys may want to consider.

I wish you all the best

 

[FBbaby]

Thanks MrsJA You are not negative at all, just putting it down as it was said to you which is exactly what I want to hear!

OH last count was 29mil with a 3.5ml volume, and 60% motility so not bad. The question is, will the 3rd stay the same, show an improvement (count went from 18mil to 29mil in three months) or go worse again. I guess the decision as to whether do icsi or keep trying naturally will stem from these results. We will have to make a decision then (6 months after first referral).

Crossing all my fingers that your ivf cycle results in a beautiful bfp

 

[MrsJA]

Thanks FB, I appreciate the vote of support

Our count is 14 million and motility 50% so it does sound we're in a different bucket to you guys.

I'm crossing my fingers u that your results keep getting better and that you get a beautiful, au natural BFP

PS - if they do get bette again tell me what you did!

 

[FBbaby]

I'll let you know what our results are in September, but if it does improve again, the only thing we will be able to attribute it to besides the law of randomness, is fertilaid and some reduction of alcohol consumption. Still, I think in most cases, it is just pure luck. my OH eats very healthily naturally, doesn't smoke, is very active and drank probably a bit too much, but nothing more than the average English man. My ex smoked, drank probably about the same if not more, didn't do any exercise, eating habits questionable and is insulin dependent diabetic, yet we had no problems conceiving our two!

I really do hope the results won't be worse because I don't think we will want to go through ivf, OH because of the clinical aspect of it and low chances of success because of my age, me because I am worried that if it failed, I would just want to keep on trying desperately again and again...

Then again, if the june and july thread bring on buckets of bfp, I might change my mind