Your chances of pregnancy, by my calculations :)

[gigglebox]

Without realizing, all of us TTC'ers have put ourselves into a little experiment to see how the numbers add up for our chances of pregnancy. I am using the information from the "July No AF" thread to calculate this.

Last time I checked, there were 35 members who got AF (some on time, some days before), and 19 that got their BFP's. The only way these numbers are off would be due to members of the thread that haven't said if either have happened.

Of the 54 members so far (from July 1 to July 11), the results show that 64.81 have gotten AF, and 35.19 got the positive result (I am including one unlucky lady who had a chemical, but she did get a BFP first).

In conclusion, so far the data shows that your chances of conceiving is 35.19%! Not bad considering most sites say the chances each month are about 20-25%. I am going to recalculate at the end of the month to see some more accurate numbers with a higher sample of members, but I was hoping someone would find it as interesting as I did

I like doing math when the occasion arrises

 

[beckalouise]

Interesting statement, hope im in the 35.19%

 

[Nae]

Nicee.. Hope Im one of the lucky ones.

 

[gigglebox]

Me too! Granted this doesn't factor in anything like fertility issues, recent m/c's, etc., but it sure is fun to look at the numbers! I'll run 'em again at the end of the month

 

[SLH]

I hope I can up that percentage shortly.

 

[Mon_n_john]

Me too! Granted this doesn't factor in anything like fertility issues, recent m/c's, etc., but it sure is fun to look at the numbers! I'll run 'em again at the end of the month

Great job Gigglebox! I do demographics & statistics for a living so I found the data quite interesting.

 

[Brookegarrett]

Well let's hope we can up the % .

 

[Angel baby]

wow!

 

[BH040]

Lol I think we will leave the math to you! Keep it coming lol.

 

[ebelle]

So the question is, does being on the bNb forums up your chances because you tend to be doing more to ensure your BFP?

 

[artsiekat]

excellent work, gigglebox! Thanks for sharing!

ebelle - I think you're right!

 

[blueeyedgirl1]

I love info like this, I'm so tempted sometimes to run some long-term surveys on here and collate data. Thanks for the info!!

 

[Stinas]

Very interesting!
I am one of the no replys yet because I haven't tested yet.
I will by tom.

 

[gigglebox]

So the question is, does being on the bNb forums up your chances because you tend to be doing more to ensure your BFP?

I thought about this, but honestly I think this just makes things more accurate. This is because often people say that in a "perfect month" you only have a 20-25% chance; well we're ALL trying to make our months perfect...does that make sense?

There shouldn't be too much credit given to these percentages though because for this to be truly accurate I would have to have a *true* random sample; a true random sample is nearly impossible to obtain. We have a controlled random sample of obsessed TTCers, LOL!

 

[ebelle]

So the question is, does being on the bNb forums up your chances because you tend to be doing more to ensure your BFP?

I thought about this, but honestly I think this just makes things more accurate. This is because often people say that in a "perfect month" you only have a 20-25% chance; well we're ALL trying to make our months perfect...does that make sense?

There shouldn't be too much credit given to these percentages though because for this to be truly accurate I would have to have a *true* random sample; a true random sample is nearly impossible to obtain. We have a controlled random sample of obsessed TTCers, LOL!

either way, the odds are good for us! Yay!

 

[BH040]

So the question is, does being on the bNb forums up your chances because you tend to be doing more to ensure your BFP?

I thought about this, but honestly I think this just makes things more accurate. This is because often people say that in a "perfect month" you only have a 20-25% chance; well we're ALL trying to make our months perfect...does that make sense?

There shouldn't be too much credit given to these percentages though because for this to be truly accurate I would have to have a *true* random sample; a true random sample is nearly impossible to obtain. We have a controlled random sample of obsessed TTCers, LOL!

The thing is that you that you technically have a random sample because you are looking at a chance to conceive from a specific population and you were acquiring information from a large range of women with different backgrounds and different methods used to aid in conception. So would your percentages be valid in the real world as a real study, definately not. But, are your numbers technically valid because you are calculating them for a specific population, I would say so.

 

[gigglebox]

So the question is, does being on the bNb forums up your chances because you tend to be doing more to ensure your BFP?

I thought about this, but honestly I think this just makes things more accurate. This is because often people say that in a "perfect month" you only have a 20-25% chance; well we're ALL trying to make our months perfect...does that make sense?

There shouldn't be too much credit given to these percentages though because for this to be truly accurate I would have to have a *true* random sample; a true random sample is nearly impossible to obtain. We have a controlled random sample of obsessed TTCers, LOL!

The thing is that you that you technically have a random sample because you are looking at a chance to conceive from a specific population and you were acquiring information from a large range of women with different backgrounds and different methods used to aid in conception. So would your percentages be valid in the real world as a real study, definately not. But, are your numbers technically valid because you are calculating them for a specific population, I would say so.

I like your rationale

 

[gigglebox]

Hi everyone! I just wanted to say I went back to recalculate the data from the July testing thread now that the month is over and more people have reported their results...

So, here you are! According to that sample, you have...

27.56% of positive testing
72.44% of negative testing

Not quite as good as we had hoped, but not as bad as 20% either as some sites say! Good luck everyone Let's swing those odds!!!

 

[PositiveUs]

Let's just round that up to 30%!
I am determined to be part of the 30%!
Thanks for keeping up on this!!

 

[gigglebox]

No problem, thanks for looking!