actively ttc #1 and remaining positive

[trixiesmith]

Just a bit about me: I’m 28, DH is 30. We’ve been together 5 years and getting married next year but have been calling each other husband and wife for a while lol. We’ve been trying off and on for about a year or so, basically ntnp, and just recently began actively ttc #1 again. I have a pretty regular 28-29 day cycle, temp and use opks, and have no known fertility issues.

A few years back I suffered from cervical dysplasia (originally told it was PID but wasn't). After treatment and follow-up appointments, doctors said I shouldn't have any issues with getting pregnant. Back in September I went to my doctor because we haven’t gotten pregnant yet and he decided to send DH for a semen analysis before starting tests for me. To date, DH hasn't gone but I know I'll convince him to go lol.

I’m 13dpo, had 2 bfn and have no signs of af or pregnancy, aside from a bit of cramping a few days ago and consistent creamy cm. But since my temp took a major drop below coverline this morning I expect af within the next day or two if she doesn’t show today. I’m sure it’s just a waiting game right now.

 

[JayPi]

Hi trixiesmith!
I'm 32 and ttc #1 with dh who is 34. We started ntnp and just seeing if anything happened almost 2 years ago after coming off bcp in the autumn before that after 6 years of taking it. We've been actively ttc since September this year as after I suffered a very early miscarriage at 6w last October nothing had happened since then. Until only a couple of months ago I was suffering from very irregular periods but the doctors have put it down to coming off bcp and have told me to bbt track and opk use for at least 6 months before they will run any tests. They say we are still young and there is no rush. Easy for them to say, they're not in my shoes!!
I'm currently on cd11 so will begin opk daily from tomorrow....
Hope af doesn't arrive for you, it's super frustrating...

 

[awnmyown]

Similar boat over here; I'm 30 and DH is 33. We're on cycle #3, but haven't had anything but negatives. I just keep reminding myself that the odds are stacked towards BFN, so it may be awhile before the BFP. But every cycle your odds improve!

 

[trixiesmith]

Hi ladies, thanks for replying!

jay - I understand the "you're still young" talk. Unfortunately DH and I have gotten into the habit of telling each other that while we remind each other we can't be sad because it'll happen for us. Hopefully sooner rather than later. I've been very aware the past few months that by the time I have a child turn 18, I'll be 47-50.

awn - We're on cycle #3 as well since we've decided to really ttc. I've heard the statistics from a testing group I've chatted with on here and I'd very much agree the odds are stacked towards bfn. Not fun. But I like that they improve with each passing cycle. I just wish it would happen sooner. Based on your sig (the %), do you use the Glow app? If so, how do you like it?

afm: af came, and now I'm just waiting for my window to arrive. A few more days until O day. I have been so impatient. I decided to go out and try the raspberry leaf tea, and it's amazing. It's already working. I really didn't know what to expect, but I have like an abundance of cm, negative opks, and O is still a few days away.
I have a doctors appointment scheduled for today, and I'm a bit nervous but I'm hoping they try to assist me in some way despite DH not doing his analysis yet. Keeping my fx for good news and some help.

 

[KatO79]

Good luck trixie, hope you soon get your BFP! I'm a LTTTC'er myself (a tad over 2 years now) and it's definitely not fun to be in this situation so hope you don't have to go through it

Similar boat over here; I'm 30 and DH is 33. We're on cycle #3, but haven't had anything but negatives. I just keep reminding myself that the odds are stacked towards BFN, so it may be awhile before the BFP. But every cycle your odds improve!

Actually awnmyown, your odds decrease every few months for a BFP! That's why they say you need to get checked out after about 1 year if you're under 35 and 6 months if you're 35 or over. Odds each cycle are 15-20% and they don't increase.

If odds increased, you'd at one point hit 100% chance for pregnancy and it doesn't work that way By that logic I should've gotten my BFP a long time ago but that hasn't happened.

Here's a chart I found that shows your chances based on your age and length of TTC:

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/08/predict-odds-of-getting-pregnant_n_1948517.html

 

[trixiesmith]

thanks kat! unfortunately I have either missed my window this month (no clue how that happened) or I'm having a delayed O (even odder to me than missing a + opk). I'm lost now with the odds and statistics. At this point I'd say it just doesn't look good at all for me based on that lol

 

[awnmyown]

Kat, I get what you mean, but also think to look at it differently. Stats say that healthy fertile couples have a 15% chance each month. If every month you have a 15% chance, and if 95% of fertile couples will conceive within two years, assuming you are fertile your odds of being in the BFP group each month increases. So if there are ten people in a group, all fertile, the first month 1 would get pregnant. Then two the second month. Which means at the third month, you're one of the eight girls who might be the pregnant one that month. So that if it's been two years, every other girl in the group would already have a BFP meaning that you're likely the next one.

It's of course weighted heavily on being fertile and the belief you are in the group that will get a BFP. I like to be positive.

This website is what I go on. And yes, I'm assuming I'll be lucky and can get pregnant. Many studies show that 95% of woman will conceive after two years of TTC, without assistance.

https://www.countdowntopregnancy.com/tools/age_fertility_calculator.php

So yup. For me, in my group of ten imaginary ladies, 4 of them will have had a BFP by this month I'm hoping I'm one of them, but I could be one of the six still waiting

 

[KatO79]

Kat, I get what you mean, but also think to look at it differently. Stats say that healthy fertile couples have a 15% chance each month. If every month you have a 15% chance, and if 95% of fertile couples will conceive within two years, assuming you are fertile your odds of being in the BFP group each month increases. So if there are ten people in a group, all fertile, the first month 1 would get pregnant. Then two the second month. Which means at the third month, you're one of the eight girls who might be the pregnant one that month. So that if it's been two years, every other girl in the group would already have a BFP meaning that you're likely the next one.

It's of course weighted heavily on being fertile and the belief you are in the group that will get a BFP. I like to be positive.

This website is what I go on. And yes, I'm assuming I'll be lucky and can get pregnant. Many studies show that 95% of woman will conceive after two years of TTC, without assistance.

https://www.countdowntopregnancy.com/tools/age_fertility_calculator.php

So yup. For me, in my group of ten imaginary ladies, 4 of them will have had a BFP by this month I'm hoping I'm one of them, but I could be one of the six still waiting

The problem is it's 15-20% each and every month, it does not increase! All REs and GPs agree on this fact. Check out the chart I showed trixie, it also shows that your chances decrease after a few months. This is also why many GPs and REs recommend couples to seek testing after anything from 6 months to 1 year, depending on your age.

Plus you can't automatically assume you're in the very fertile group, you don't know that for sure. I thought that I would be somewhat in that group too yet here I am 2 years later and still no BFP (although waiting to take a blood test on Thursday after IVF#1). This is a dangerous assumption because you could also be setting yourself up for a great disappointment. There's being positive and being so positive that you're being blind to facts and the true statistics.

I also don't think it's fair for you to tell people that their chances increase when it's not based on any fact but some calculator that assumes you're on the more fertile side. Lots of LTTTC ladies would find this rather hurtful and provocative that you tell people that. There are plenty of ladies here that have been trying for 3+ years. You can't base facts and statistics on such an assumption. You have to base it on the whole range which means including all the less fertile people in it as well. It doesn't sound like they're accounted for in your statistic. If you're going to leave certain people out of statistics, you can make anything look more hopeful and increase chances in that way. Either way, you can't base things on that calculator, it assumes too much! You may also be giving certain people false hope as we're not all in the more fertile group. It's fine you feel more positive using it but I don't think you should be telling people on this board that it's based on facts and real statistics and they're sure to have increased chances each month because it isn't how things work.

 

[awnmyown]

Kat it's of course never my intent to mislead or hurt anyone. If it has happened, it's certainly unintentional and I do apologize.

Of course woman should see a doctor after a year of TTC without success. Of course, as woman age, fertility decreases and we should more actively pursue assistance.

Please keep in mind I didn't make the calculator; from what I understand, it's based on a normal sampling, which is why after 2 years, some couples still do not conceive. It certainly doesn't illustrate a 100% success.

I read this study as well:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-2095906/Struggling-year-pregnant-You-try-says-study.html

Which also indicates that about 5% of couples are truly infertile, the others subfertile. Subfertility is captured again, because we don't see 100% success, but we approach 100% as time passes.

I still counter that your probability does increase over time. Heads or tails? You only have a 50% chance of flipping a heads each time, but that doesn't mean that after 12 flips, you only had a 50% chance of getting them all heads. Your chance of getting a heads increases.

If I have a 15% chance of rolling a BFP this cycle and I didn't, then while next cycle I might have a 14% chance of rolling a BFP because I'm subfertile with every passing month, but I am still more likely to get a BFP that month then the month before because I've been trying longer. Does that make sense?? So even though your chance each month is going down, your chance as a whole is increasing. Even though it's increasing by less every month. It's the probability of conception over time, compared to your reference which is the probability at each cycle.

I believe it is the math model of (15)^monthsTTC, which is probability over time.

Of course, the unfortunate part, is even the 15% chance a month is an "ideal" situation; factors such as partner, environment, stress, weight, ethnicity, health all play heavily into each of our individual fertility. There's no good statistic out there, because none of us actually know where we fall until we've fallen.

I realize my chances could be 2% or 0% each month. And stacking 0% over 12 months isn't going to lead to a BFP. I know that. But I also know that I'd rather say that there is a 95% chance I'm in the group that has a 85% chance of conceiving in a year, until I know otherwise.

So I apologize if I misled. I apologize if anyone sees the calculator on countdowntopregnancy.com and thinks it means they're going to get pregnant. And I'll change my signature so that it's clearer I'm talking about probability over time, so that no one who has been struggling feels like I'm posting something misleading. I truly apologize that it came off that way. I'm merely talking about probability over time.