How reliable is a 10 day forecast.

[karlilay]

Going away camping, well Glamping to Skeggy next Sunday, as this is all we can afford, it has beene really hot topic in our house and the kids are so excited to go. I was too, until iv become ridiculously obsessive about the weather forecasts.

They all just say its gunna hammer it down all week I don't want to go if we're just gunna get rained on all week....

 

[Jade--x]

Personally I take weather forecasts with a pinch of salt. We went to cornwall one year and were predicted blazing sunshine..It rained all day every day and that's when the Boscastle floods happened we were literally down the road. I don't watch the news or forecasts very often but the times I have caught it they've rarely been right.
We're going away this weekend camping and even if it rains I'm not too bothered got my wellies and I absolutely LOVE listening to the rain in a tent or caravan x

 

[karlilay]

That's what my dad said. Thanks Hun xx

 

[Nibblenic]

Not!

You really cant predict the weather with any kind of accuracy more than 2 days in advance.
Ive been away in the UK with a forecast for heavy rain and its been 23c and sunshine

 

[Natasha2605]

_I'd say not, definitely not ten days in advance! Hope you get nice weather though

 

[Blah11]

we were due 'heavy flooding' a week or so ago and it didnt even rain on that day haha!

& even if it does rain the kids don't care! rain coats and wellies and still go out and do what you wanted to!

 

[karlilay]

Hope so Mandy! The forecast changes every day, I'm not going for sun, else we would have gone abroad, I just don't want it to rain all week

 

[morri]

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/enspanel4.gif
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/enspanel2.gif
Spaghetti plots are a great way to see how reliable the weather forecast is going to be.
These here are ensemble forecast(meaning different forecast agencies plot their charts for the weather and they are combined to see how reliable it is going to be.
The above chart shows Europe from tomorrow to in 10 days time. The more the graphs look like spaghetti(where the chart got its name from) the less you can trust the weather forecast to be reliable. 9 days is the maximum of reliable weather fore cast and as you can see here , the current weather doesnt really allow for a safe forecast for weather in 10 days. the most reliable forecast are usually up to 3 days.
(the lines show the temp at 850/500 hpa height.) but you may not understand them-- but they show you the reliability of forecast )

850 hPa level is roughly at 1.5 km, usually above the atmospheric boundary layer. That means there is no diurnal temperature variation, and the underlying surface such as cool sea doesn't affect it's temperature. That is why 850 hpa temperature is used to distinguish air masses and thus to locate cold and warm fronts.

https://weatherfaqs.org.uk/node/142#spaghetti
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/tkenseur.html